Toshiba to drop HD DVD

BBC News is reporting that shares of Toshiba have risen over speculation that it will scrap the HD DVD format. Toshiba was one of the pioneers of the format and has stood by it even after it was eclipsed by Blu-ray.

The article states that Toshiba is "reviewing its business strategies" but no decision has been made about HD DVD's future yet. This reflects a change in Toshiba's attitudes as it used to answer a firm "yes, the format will continue" when asked.

I hope Toshiba kills it sooner rather than later, as not only are they hurting themselves and the industry, but they are prolonging the inevitable. I think the major complaint about Blu-ray - price - will become a non-factor in the future as the industry can now focus its resources on one format to bring down prices, instead of splitting them between two. Also, technological improvements over time and increased demand will lower production costs and bring down prices as well.

Some people are wondering if it will all be in vain, as the download industry is just starting to take off. That remains to be seen but I don't think they are ready to directly compete with discs yet though.

Update 2/19/08: It's official. Toshiba has now suspended production of HD DVD players and recorders but will continue to clear out its inventory until March. This is a lot earlier than I had originally expected, so well done Toshiba for not drawing it out.

More troubles for HD DVD

AppleInsider reports that the ailing HD DVD format has suffered two more blows.

Best Buy has stated it will promote Blu-ray over HD DVD in its stores. Blu-ray discs and players will have more prominent placing and staff will be instructed to recommend Blu-ray over HD DVD.

Netflix stated that, to ease consumer confusion, it will not be adding new HD DVD formats to its catalog and will gradually phase out the existing ones.

When you consider how much of a share Netflix has over the home rental market and how much Best Buy has over the retail DVD market, this is a massive blow for HD DVD. It is also a psychological blow because consumers can sense that the ship is sinking and no price cuts from Toshiba will change this. Even if they gave away HD DVD players for free, I don't think they could make a comeback.

Apple, despite being on the Blu-ray board, has remained incredibly quiet over the whole issue. I think the whole issue lies with burning Blu-ray discs. From what I have read, standard DVD and Blu-ray are so different that DVD Studio Pro will require a rewrite in order to support Blu-ray. I am guessing the same applies to iDVD and the Finder's built-in disc burning capabilities.

I would imagine this is the primary reason why Apple does not offer a Blu-ray drive option in their lineup. Maybe they were waiting for a clear winner to emerge before putting resources into updating their software packages. It would be very expensive to write code for a losing format. Price may also be a factor, considering the ~$1000 price tag of Sony's burners and the $10-25 price per disc.

Everyone predicts a Blu-ray burner from Apple every year and it never arrives but this year is different because we now have a clear winner. Everyone is so glad that a winner is emerging that they are putting all of their resources behind it to spur it on, leaving no doubt in my mind that HD DVD will eventually die. When that occurs is up to Toshiba. If I was managing Toshiba, I'd stop production, sell off the remaining inventory and count my losses. Persevering in the face of obvious defeat will only damage them in the long run.

I think we could see Blu-ray drives in Mac Pros by the end of the year (probably as a BTO option).

MacBook Air: Solid-state vs regular hard disk

AppleInsider pitted a solid-state MacBook Air against one with a regular hard disk. They found that with large amounts of data, the read speeds of these drives were up to 18 times faster than regular hard disks. Write speeds were lower, at around 70% but when you compare a 30% loss in write speed to an 1800% gain in read speed, I'd gladly take that performance hit.

SSDs have other advantages:
* They are more reliable because they have no moving parts
* They are great for situations where data is littered all over the hard drive because they do not have heads that need to physically move from one area to another
* No noise
* Lower power consumption and less heat generated

Now, can you think of an application where reliability is important, you are transferring a lot of data that may be all over the place, where reading is more common than writing, and where noise and heat is undesirable?

I can't wait to throw out my Xserve RAIDs and replace them with SSD ones. They are noisy, they generate a ton of heat, I constantly worry about them failing on me, and they are really heavy and bulky. I would love to have a 1U SSD Xserve RAID that is lightweight, fast and quiet.

Unfortunately, price is the limiting factor right now. However, the proliferation of the iPhone and iPod Touch, and the increasing demand for SSD storage in compact notebooks will bring the price down with time. We're at a turning point right now because for the first time, SSDs have reached a size and price point that makes them viable for consumer laptops. There is no way they could have offered a 32 GB SSD with the Air. Ok, $999 is a lot for a 64 GB disk but it is within reach. It will probably be half that in 12 months' time anyway.

When the size and price becomes viable though, these will be great for editors.

Apple pulls out of NAB 2008

AppleInsider is stating that Apple has pulled out of NAB 2008.

Last year, Apple's main competitor in the video editing field, Avid, announced that it was not going to attend the conference, amid industry speculation as to its reasons.

In Apple's case, it is not necessarily a bad thing and does not mean that we will not see new video-related products. Setting up a stand at big trade shows is expensive and Apple have reached the stage where their brand is so strong that they do not need anyone else to help them market it. This was illustrated last year by the announcement of the iPhone at Macworld in January overshadowing all of the announcements at the CES show happening at the same time.

I repeat: this is not necessarily bad news. I quote Steve Jobs from this year's Macworld keynote: "All of this in two weeks. And there's still 50 to go."

Gartner: HD DVD dead by the end of the year

PCWorld is reporting that Gartner Research has predicted the death of HD DVD by the end of the year. It dubs Toshiba's massive HD DVD player price cuts as "useless resistance".

While I have no idea how long it will take before Toshiba gives up, I am in agreement that it is incredibly difficult for HD DVD to make a comeback. It is too costly for the studios to output to three different formats (standard-def DVD, HD DVD and Blu-ray). More importantly, HD DVD is already dead in the eyes of several consumers I have spoken to, and I am sure the recent negative publicity cemented this belief in many more people.

Lack of studio support and constant predictions of HD DVD's demise are denting consumer confidence and increasing Blu-ray's lead. If Toshiba is planning a comeback, it needs to be now.

As an update to my previous post, the "Save HD DVD" petition now stands at over 30,000 signatures and the "Let HD DVD Die" petition stands at over 10,000. I cannot see Warner or the others doing a U-turn on this policy, however, no matter how many votes it gets.

Update 1/30/08:
Video Business is reporting that HD DVD player sales rose significantly over the past week. This is likely to be due to the massive (half-price in some cases) price cuts that took place. Last week's player sales put Blu-ray at 63%, HD DVD at 33% and dual-format players at 4%. The week before it was 90% for Blu-ray and 7% for HD DVD.

This shows that consumers are more susceptible to pricing strategies in this war than previously thought. HD DVD is the cheaper format, in terms of both disc and player costs but if Blu-ray does become the dominant format, production costs (and presumably prices) will fall with time.

NVIDIA working on Mac support for GPGPUs

AppleInsider is reporting that, according to its sources, NVIDIA is working on General Purpose Graphical Processing Unit (GPGPU) support for the Macintosh.

Unlike conventional graphics chips, GPGPUs can perform general purpose processing tasks and are not limited to graphical calculations only. This allows non-graphical software to utilize the GPU for other processing tasks, speeding up calculations. Software like Compressor could use this to speed up rendering, and Motion and Final Cut Pro could re-use the graphics processor as a standard processor when it is not needed for graphics-accelerated rendering. It would also be beneficial to laptop users, as it would provide more power efficiency (performance per watt).

GPGPUs cannot process every task that a CPU could though. They are used to processing several streams of graphical data simultaneously, so they work best with parallel tasks in which several similar tasks are being completed at the same time (e.g. rendering video frames in Compressor).

NVIDIA's chips use a technology called CUDA (Compute Unified Device Architecture) that allows software to communicate with the graphics processor and issue commands to it. ATI has a similar technology called CTM (Close to Metal).

The important factor that people seem to be missing is that GPGPUs are present in Nvidia's GeForce 8800 chips. This is confirmed by this page. This means that the GeForce 8800 GXT for the Mac Pro is already a GPGPU; it is just a case of developing OS X software to utilize it.

NVIDIA has put out a job posting for a full-time OS X CUDA driver developer, so it looks like this process is about to begin. It will probably be a long time before we see GPGPU-enabled applications because Apple will have to release driver and framework support for it before any developers can start work on CUDA applications. It is a very exciting development though.

HD DVD not going down without a fight

HighDefDigest has a series of articles on the ongoing HD-DVD vs Blu-ray saga. I have heard some consumer publications say that HD-DVD is dead and Blu-ray has won the war. This is completely misleading. HD-DVD has taken some heavy blows but it has not died yet. Microsoft has shown in the past that it is prepared to make a loss in order to increase the market share of inferior products.

HD-DVD is definitely not giving up the ghost here. Universal has confirmed that it has no plans to abandon the HD-DVD format, despite the escape clause in its contract.

Meanwhile, on the other side of the fence, Warner revealed that it plans to delay even more of its HD-DVD releases. The delays now encompass its catalog titles in addition to its new ones.

Retailers are supporting Warner's move as well. Retailers are becoming cautious about over-stocking HD-DVD titles and are dedicating more shelf space to Blu-ray discs.

Finally, an online petition has been set up, campaigning against the move to abandon HD-DVD. At the time of writing, it has received over 15,000 signatures. Recently, a counter-petition called "Let HD DVD Die" was set up. At the time of writing, it has over 6,000 signatures (including mine). Because the first petition has had a couple of weeks' head start, it's difficult to tell which one is actually "winning" right now, although it probably won't make much difference.

A little update on Final Cut Pro's gamma quirks

Last week I made a post about Final Cut Pro modifying the gamma of clips, causing some to be too dark and some to be washed out.

The washed out issue was the most serious because it only happened upon exporting the movie, and the image looked perfectly fine in FCP. The darkening issue was less severe because it only affected the user's perception of the image in FCP and if they were not performing color correction in FCP, they would be perfectly fine.

I was just going through User Preferences, trying to help someone who was having difficulty, when I noticed a new option that I had never seen before (I don't adjust user prefs very often). In the Editing tab, there is a section marked "Imported Still / RGB Video Gamma". You can choose from Source, 1.80, 2.20, 2.22 and Custom. My research indicates that this option has been there since 6.0.0 but Apple recently renamed it in 6.0.2 to clarify that it is for RGB footage only.

1.80 refers to the default gamma of RGB footage (eg. still images and special effects codecs such as Animation). This is also the default gamma of your Mac display. 2.20 refers to the default gamma of YUV footage (eg. NTSC, PAL, ProRes, etc). Camera footage falls into this category, as do a lot of the displays on Windows machines. Gamma 2.22 is also used by Windows PCs. I would advise leaving this option on Source, so that no gamma correction will be applied to the clip itself. The only correction that will occur will be when playing back in the FCP Canvas, and not upon exporting the movie.

This setting will fix the RGB gamma issue that caused images to be washed out upon export. This does not change Final Cut Pro's handling of YUV images.

My Macworld 2008 Predictions

Everyone's doing it so I thought I would jump on the bandwagon. We just got some new Mac Pros and some new Xserves so I don't think there will be any further announcements in these departments.

What I think will be announced:
* Steve is sure to show off some features of the new iPhone SDK due in February but these will most likely be non-technical, with more technical info saved for WWDC.
* New MacBook Pros. It's been a long time since the last update and Intel just released some new mobile chips.
* iTunes movie rentals and iTunes 7.6. Based on this article.
* 16 GB iPhone plus the new firmware that was previously leaked.

What I hope will be announced:
* An update to the disappointing Apple TV that will allow you to purchase songs, music and maybe even video from the iTunes store, directly from your couch. It may even combine the Mac Mini (also disappointing sales-wise) and Apple TV into one media center unit.
* New cinema displays with glass displays like the new iMac. Not sure about built-in iSight.

What I don't think will be announced:
* I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that I don't think there will be an ultraportable or a PDA. A lot of people think there will be one, but I don't. I think it would be too much of a blur between the MacBook and the iPhone / iPod Touch. Remember that with the SDK, the iPhone and Touch will essentially be PDAs so it is unlikely that there will be a separate PDA unless they can make it vastly different.

I'm writing this post on a MacBook and I can say that they can't make this thing much smaller without taking away some of the keys on the keyboard. The only way to make it really portable would be to make it a touchscreen but you would have to hold a massive screen in your hands the whole time (unless they make a stand) but then it would practically be an iPod Touch in all but size anyway. Also, flash-based storage is still very small.

* No 3G iPhone. Steve has said that 3G battery life is poor, and 3G coverage in the USA is relatively sparse.

Find out how wrong I was on January 15th at 9am.

More companies drop HD DVD

HBO announced yesterday that it will follow its parent company, Warner, in embracing Blu-ray exclusively. Warner has one more subsidiary, BBC Home Video, that has not yet announced its intentions but it is expected to follow suit.

Variety is now reporting that the two remaining studios in the HD DVD camp, Universal and Paramount, could switch sides soon as well.

They say that they can confirm that "Universal's commitment to backing HD DVD exclusively has ended" and that Paramount has an escape clause in its contract that will allow it to release films on Blu-ray after Warner embraced it exclusively. The two companies are not dropping support for the format but it is less attractive for them to remain exclusive to it.

I am certain that HD DVD will not go down without a fight, as Microsoft and Toshiba have invested a considerable amount of money into the format. Toshiba says it will remain faithful to the format but as a consumer, I would not be rushing out to buy an HD DVD player right now. If the remaining HD DVD-supporting studios choose to release their titles on both HD DVD and Blu-ray, the battle is already over. Why would you buy an HD DVD player that can play two studios' titles when you can buy a Blu-ray player that will play every company's discs? It's a no-brainer.

Update: Universal has issued a statement: "Contrary to unsubstantiated rumors from unnamed sources, Universal's current plan is to continue to support the HD DVD format". Note that they did not use the word "exclusively" or say anything about not releasing titles on Blu-ray.